Monitoring public electoral sentiment through online comments in the news media: a comparative study of the 2019 and 2022 presidential elections in Kazakhstan

Abstract

This study examined how comments about Kazakhstan’s 2019 and 2022 presidential elections posted on Tengrinews, one of the most commonly used news websites in Kazakhstan, reflected public sentiment toward the elections after two political flashpoints: Nazarbayev’s resignation and the January 2022 protests (known as Bloody January - Qandy Qantar). In particular, the study seeks an answer to the question, “How has public sentiment changed between 9 April 2019 and 25 June 2019, as well as between 20 September 2022 and 21 November 2022?” In this paper, we applied a content analysis of all user-generated comments (n = 3,147) to identify Kazakhstani people’s mood through the lenses of cues given in comments. The method demonstrates that people were most concerned about presidential nominations and candidates, election costs, protests, and social problems, and showed some hope for change. The results also demonstrate that Kazakhstanis tend to use sarcastic language and indicate the performative nature of the country’s elections. Based on comparative analysis, we confirm that political flashpoints significantly affect citizens’ sentiments, even regarding topics such as protests.