Monitoring potential geographical distribution of four wild bird species in China

Abstract

The outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) of the H5N1 subtypes in wild birds and poultry have caught worldwide attention. To explore the association between wild bird migration and avian influenza virus transmission, we monitored potential geographical distribution of four wild bird species that might carry the avian influenza viruses in China. They are bar-headed geese (Anser indicus), ruddy shelducks (Tadorna ferruginea), whooper swans (Cygnus cygnus) and black-headed gulls (Larus ridibundus). They served as major reservoir of the avian influenza viruses. We used bird watching records with the precise latitude/longitude coordinates from January 2002 to August 2014, and environmental variables with a pixel resolution of 5 km × 5 km from 2002 to 2014. The study utilized maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model based on ecological niche model approaches, and got the following results: (1) MaxEnt model have good discriminatory ability with the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating curve (ROC) of 0.86–0.97; (2) the four wild bird species were estimated to concentrate in the North China Plain, the middle and lower region of the Yangtze River, Qinghai Lake, Tianshan Mountain and Tarim Basin, part of Tibet Plateau, and Hengduan Mountains; (3) radiation and temperature were found to provide the most significant information. Our findings will help to understand the spread of avian influenza viruses by wild bird migration in China, which benefits for effective monitoring strategies and prevention measures.