Abstract

Institute of Ecology of Vilnius University, Akademijos 2, 2600 Vilnius, Lithuania. E-mail: karalius@ekoi.ltAbstract. The infestation levels by the currant clearwing moth of the black currant fields located indifferent places of Lithuania were determined using cane cutting method in spring-time. Deltoid stickytraps baited with 0.5 mg of E2,Z13-octadecadien-1-yl acetate were used for monitoring the flight ofcurrant clearwing moth. Analysis of 3-year data on the infestation level and the data on trap catches inthe fields (n = 9, 12 and 11) revealed statistically significant correlations between the average number ofcurrant clearwing males caught by pheromone trap during all flight season and: 1) the infestation levelof the black currant field in the spring of the same year (r = 0.70); 2) the absolute number of male mothsin a currant field (r = 0.58); and 3) the infestation level of the currant field in the spring of the next year(r = 0.78). Forecasting of the infestation level in the field in the spring of next year (y) basing on theaverage number of males caught during their flight season (x) was suggested using the regressioncurve y = 0.125x. The tolerance limit of 10% infested currant stems corresponds to the catch of 80males per trap during the flight season.Key words : infestation level, trap catches, correlation and regression study, forecast, black currant pests

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