Abstract
Increase or decrease in rainfall compared to normal conditions, one can increase the flood risk,The second cause is drought consequences of different economic and social consequences. Knowing the probability distribution of rainfall provides sufficient grounds for water resources planning. This knowledge will be possible with the help of statistical methods and dynamic. In this paper, by using Markov chain and SPI index Likely very dry to very humid conditions, based on annual rainfall Minab Basin rain gauge stations were calculated. The basin hydrological drought Brntyn station using long-term data were analyzed and monitored. The results suggest probability of transition from one mode to the other conditions specified in the same state is more likely crossing. Drought Forecast water using Markov chain for 2015-2016 years is 88.8% likely indicates dry conditions.
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