Monitoring of anticoagulant therapy applying a dynamic statistical model

Abstract

Patients with an increased risk of thrombosis may require treatment with vitamin K-antagonists such as warfarin. Treatment with warfarin has been reported difficult mainly due to high inter- and intraindividual variability in response to the drug [1]. Using predictive models that can predict International Normalised Ratio (INR) values enables for a higher degree of individualised warfarin dosing regime. This paper reports the outcome of the development of a dynamic prediction model. It takes warfarin intake and INR values as inputs, and uses an individual sensitivity parameter to model response to warfarin intake. The model is set on state-space form and uses Kalman filtering technique to optimise individual parameters. Retrospective test of the model proved robustness to choices of initial parameters, and feasible prediction results of both INR values and suggested warfarin dosage, which may prove beneficial for both patients and healthcare takers.