Monitoring Methane Concentrations with High Spatial Resolution over China by Using Random Forest Model

Abstract

Atmospheric methane is one of the major greenhouse gases with a drastic impact on climate change. This study developed a random forest model to obtain a daily 5 km resolution atmospheric methane concentration dataset with full spatial coverage (100%) from 2019 to 2021 in mainland China, thereby filling the gap in the methane product data from the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI). The coefficients of determination for a sample-based and spatial-based cross-validation are 0.97 and 0.93, respectively. The average deviation of the seamless methane product reconstructed by the random forest model is less than 1%, validated with the measured methane concentration data from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network sites. Methane concentrations in China show a distribution of high in the east and south and low in the west and north. The high-concentration areas include Central China, the Sichuan Basin, the Pearl River Delta, and the Yangtze River Delta. In terms of time scale, the methane concentration has evident seasonal variation, as it is low in spring (average 1852 ppb) and winter (average 1881 ppb) and high in summer (average 1885 ppb) and autumn (average 1886 ppb). This is mainly due to the significant increase in emissions from rice cultivation and wetlands during the summer and autumn. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the methane concentration decreases significantly and then starts to return to normal around 70 days after the Lunar New Year, indicating that the seamless methane product can potentially detect anomalous changes in methane concentration.