Monitoring land use change and urban sprawl based on spatial structure to prioritize specific regulations in Semarang, Indonesia

Abstract

Indonesia is undergoing rapid pace of urbanization and inadequacy of reliable data for environmental and urban planning, especially in the developing countries. Therefore, this paper aims to evaluate land use/cover change (LUCC) and urban spatial expansion, from 2005 to 2017, in Semarang City, Indonesia, using satellite images, field observations, and socio-economic data. The urban sprawl was also measured using Shannon’s entropy based on its primary spatial form. As known, urban sprawl measurements based on its spatial forms would affect the policies and specific regulations in dealing with its dominant form. LUCC change and urban growth were simulated for 2029, using the CA-Markov model. The results show rapid growth of built-up areas that led to a significant decrease in the agriculture areas, gardens and wasteland, from 2005 to 2017. The obtained relative entropy values indicate Semarang city has experienced an increasing urban sprawl over the last few years. The CA-Markov model predicts that this unsustainable trend will continue in the future and built-up areas. The results in this study determine appropriate policies and regulations, especially to prevent linear glaciers along the main road.