Abstract
Hydro-climatic extremes can affect the reliability of electricity supply, in particular in countries that depend greatly on hydropower or cooling water and have a limited adaptive capacity. Assessments of the vulnerability of the power sector and of the impact of extreme events are thus crucial for decision-makers, and yet often they are severely constrained by data scarcity. Here, we introduce and validate an energy-climate-water framework linking remotely-sensed data from multiple satellite missions and instruments (TOPEX/POSEIDON. OSTM/Jason, VIIRS, MODIS, TMPA, AMSR-E) and field observations. The platform exploits random forests regression algorithms to mitigate data scarcity and predict river discharge variability when ungauged. The validated predictions are used to assess the impact of hydroclimatic extremes on hydropower reliability and on the final use of electricity in urban areas proxied by nighttime light radiance variation. We apply the framework to the case of Malawi for the periods 2000–2018 and 2012–2018 for hydrology and power, respectively. Our results highlight the significant impact of hydro-climatic variability and dry extremes on both the supply of electricity and its final use. We thus show that a modelling framework based on open-access data from satellites, machine learning algorithms, and regression analysis can mitigate data scarcity and improve the understanding of vulnerabilities. The proposed approach can support long-term infrastructure development monitoring and identify vulnerable populations, in particular under a changing climate.
Highlights
Assessments of the vulnerability of the power sector and of the impact of extreme events are crucial for decisionmakers, and yet often they are severely constrained by data scarcity
The validated predictions are used to assess the impact of hydroclimatic extremes on hydropower reliability and on the final use of electricity in urban areas proxied by nighttime light radiance variation
Our empirical estimates of the impact of hydroclimatic extremes for hydropower reliability suggest average declines of 9.4% points in the monthly HCF in Malawi during dry extreme events compared to the long-run average value recorded in the same month
Summary
Developing countries experience recurrent issues in guaranteeing a reliable and secure provision of electricity to satisfy their domestic demand, with significant repercussions on economic growth and development prospects [1–5] and on the environment [6, 7]. A scarce diversification of the generation mix, the lack of sufficient and affordable back-up options, a limited adaptive capacity, and few international transmission lines represent some of the key underlying issues. A large number of countries lack affordable means for coping with temporary disruptions caused, for instance, by hydro-climatic extremes such as a delayed rainy season or anomalous drought and flood periods. Diesel back-up capacity provided by independent power producers is often prohibitively costly for fully replacing the temporary loss in hydro generation [10]. Drought-related disruptions have been reported, for instance, in Kenya, Malawi, Tanzania, Ghana, Zimbabwe and Zambia, with frequent outages, power rationing, adverse business experience and competitiveness loss during precipitation anomalies [11]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
