Abstract
The spatiotemporal analysis of drought is of great importance to Eswatini as the country has been facing recurring droughts with negative impacts on agriculture, environment and economy. In 2016, the country experienced the most severe drought in over 35 years resulting in food shortages, drying up of rivers as well as livestock deaths. The frequent occurrence of extreme drought events makes the use of drought indices essential for drought monitoring, early warning and planning. The aim of this study was therefore to assess the applicability of the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) for near real-time and retrospective drought monitoring in Eswatini. The 3-, 6- and 12-month SPI were computed to analyse severity and onset of meteorological drought between 1986 and 2017. The results indicated that the climate of Eswatini exhibits geospatial and temporal variability. Droughts intensified in terms of frequency, severity and geospatial coverage, with the worst drought years being 1985–1986, 2005–2006 and 2015–2016 agricultural seasons. Moderate droughts were the most prevalent, while the frequency of severe and very severe droughts was low. Most parts of the country were vulnerable to mild and moderate agricultural droughts. Spatial analysis showed that the most severe and extreme droughts were mostly experienced in the Lowveld and Middleveld agro-ecological zones. The 3-, 6- and 12-month SPI computations conducted in January detected the onset of early season drought, thereby affirming the applicability of the index for monitoring near real-time and retrospective droughts in Eswatini. Drought monitoring using SPI provides information for early warning, particularly in drought-prone areas, by depicting a drought before the effects have begun to be felt.
Highlights
Drought is a pressing economic, social and environmental issue that is of great importance to Eswatini, similar to the rest of southern Africa, where for the past few decades the region has been affected by recurring droughts which had negative impacts on rain-fed agriculture, environment, economy and the livelihoods of the people
The aim of this study was to assess the applicability of the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) for near real-time and retrospective drought monitoring in Eswatini
This is because meteorological drought is considered a consequence of the negative deviation of rainfall from the mean and a most common indicator for drought (Wilhelmi & Wilhite 2002; Wilhite, Sivakumar & Wood 2000; WMO 2006)
Summary
Drought is a pressing economic, social and environmental issue that is of great importance to Eswatini, similar to the rest of southern Africa, where for the past few decades the region has been affected by recurring droughts which had negative impacts on rain-fed agriculture, environment, economy and the livelihoods of the people. The increased frequency in drought occurrence has triggered an increased scientific and social interest; this is in relation to future climatic conditions in the region, especially where modelling experts have predicted that drought years will be more common and severe in southern Africa and the impacts more significant (IPCC 2012, 2013). The impending challenges, the key is to understand drought and its natural and social dimensions so as to enhance drought risk management. This is in an effort to increase society’s coping capacity, which will in turn lead to greater resilience and a reduced need for government or donor interventions in the form of disaster assistance. Drought indices can be useful tools for providing information to decision-makers to predict crop yield (Kumar & Panu 1997), provide an early drought warning information (Lohani & Loganathan 1997; Lohani, Loganathan & Mostaghimi 1998), calculate the probability of drought termination http://www.jamba.org.za
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