Monitoring distributions using call surveys: estimating site occupancy, detection probabilities and inferring absence

Abstract

Monitoring programs serve to track changes in the distribution and abundance of species. A major problem with most monitoring programs is that species detection is imperfect and some populations are inevitably missed. Therefore, in most monitoring programs the true distribution of a species will be underestimated. Here, we report a field test of the reliability and performance of a commonly used method to monitor the distribution of amphibians (anuran call surveys). We surveyed the distribution of four anuran species in western Switzerland, and estimated detection probabilities to account for imperfect species detection and used these estimates to adjust our estimate of site occupancy (i.e., distribution). Next, we assessed how detection probabilities were affected by weather and how site occupancy was affected by site specific covariates. For one species ( Hyla arborea), call surveys proved efficient in determining the regional distribution with only few site visits because detection probabilities were relatively high. The call surveys apparently missed many populations of another common species ( Bufo calamita) because detection probabilities were lower. Two other species ( Bombina variegata and Alytes obstetricans) were uncommon and strong inference from the analysis is not possible. Thus, multispecies surveys may be inefficient for rare species. Estimates of detection probabilities were used to calculate how many site visits are necessary to infer the absence of a species with some predetermined statistical certainty. The implications of “false absences” are important in ecology as they are known to bias usual habitat suitability models and overestimate extinction/colonization events in metapopulations. Large-scale monitoring programs would benefit from the application of an estimation-based approach to monitoring the distribution of species.