Monitoring and modeling of spatio-temporal urban expansion and land-use/land-cover change using markov chain model: a case study in Siliguri Metropolitan area, West Bengal, India

Abstract

Urbanization is a blooming phenomenon by which towns and cities are becoming larger as more population is concentrating upon them which results in expansion of the settlements both vertically and horizontally. This creates urban sprawl which is one of the most contrasting feature of unplanned urban growth. This unanimous expansion creates problem in identifying urban administrative boundaries and it also puts pressure and stress on natural environment. The fast growing urban areas need to be observed to ensure a sustainable urban dwelling in the upcoming days. Here GIS and RS are an important and effective monitoring tools in urban planning as well as in decision making. Siliguri and adjacent area is facing the problem of rapid land use transformation, because from its inception Siliguri has flourished as a big urban centre which expanded considerably with the sands of time. The present study employs Markov Chain model as the tool for the spatial distribution of urban land use through tracing the temporal changes over the years. The study is also associated with predicting the future urban growth through several driving variables. Simulated maps show that from 2000 to 2040, there will be continuous decrease in the croplands and forest area, besides it has been observed that the built up area is consequently increased from 31 km2 in 2000 to 98 km2 in 2040. This depicts the problem of urban sprawl beside the existing administrative boundary of Siliguri. Modelling suggests a clear image of land use transformations and built up expansion. It reveals that cropland and open lands were mostly encroached by the urban built-up area and concluded that RS and GIS can be an effective tool for urban policy makers and planners to ensure a sustainable urban dwelling.