Monitoring and mapping of drought in a semi-arid region: case of the Merguellil watershed, central Tunisia.

Abstract

Drought is defined as a period of time characterized by below-normal water availability, which may affect crops, animals and the environment. Recently, drought was shown to be more frequent and more intense, implying thereby the need for monitoring and analysis of this natural hazard. The present study aims to examine the spatial extent and temporal variation of droughts in the Merguellil watershed, located in central Tunisia. This contribution was mainly based on the analysis of annual and monthly rainfall time series recorded over the period (1983-2018) in 19 stations spread throughout the study watershed. Rainfall trend was first examined using the Mann-Kendall statistical test. Then, statistical (standard precipitation index (SPI) and Palmer drought severity index (PDSI)), spectral (continuous wavelet transform (CWT)) and mapping (geographical information system (GIS)) techniques were used to identify extreme dry events and to characterize their severity and their spatial and temporal extents. The results obtained revealed the recurrence and frequency of drought conditions in the Merguellil watershed over the study period. Seven drought sequences (1983-1984, 1986-1989, 1992-1995, 1999-2002, 2007-2009, 2013-2015 and 2017-2018), with different levels of severity, were distinguished based on the computed SPI and PDSI values. Spectral analysis of rainfall data also showed the occurrence of significant droughts in recent years. The period starting from 2010 was shown to be marked by recurrent episodes of drought in the Merguellil watershed. Extreme drought events mapping over this period confirmed drought severity at both time and space scales. All of these findings may be helpful for developing programs of water resource management in the study watershed.