Monitoring and Forecasting Green Tide in the Yellow Sea Using Satellite Imagery

Abstract

This paper proposes a semi-automatic green tide extraction method based on the NDVI to extract Yellow Sea green tides from 2008 to 2022 using remote sensing (RS) images from multiple satellites: GF-1, Landsat 5 TM, Landsat 8 OLI_TIRS, HJ-1A/B, HY-1C, and MODIS. The results of the accuracy assessment based on three indicators: Precision, Recall, and F1-score, showed that our extraction method can be applied to the images of most satellites and different environments. We traced the source of the Yellow Sea green tide to Jiangsu Subei shoal and the southeastern Yellow Sea and earliest advanced the tracing time to early April. The Gompertz and Logistic growth curve models were selected to predict and monitor the extent and duration of the Yellow Sea green tide, and uncertainty for the predicted growth curve was estimated. The prediction for 2022 was that its start and dissipation dates were expected to be June 1 and August 15, respectively, and the accumulative cover area was expected to be approximately 1190.90–1191.21 km2.