Monitoring and estimating spatial-temporary land use changes of the Aegean region with remotely sensed data.

Abstract

Natural resources are affected by parameters such as natural events, global warming, or irregular urbanization, and land use classes are changing. Faulty practices or wrong approaches to land uses can also lead to deterioration and destruction in the structure of land use classes. For this reason, it should be monitored regularly, and plans for the future should be made. Aegean region, covering 12% of Turkey, is one of the most important regions in terms of tourism, agriculture, and industry. Based on the previous research results, although the spatial change on the basis of cities has been examined, the spatial change of the entire Aegean region has not been examined so far and predictions for the future have not been made. This study aims to examine the change in land use classes of the Aegean Region between 2001 and 2019 using MCD12Q1.006 MODIS Land Cover Type Yearly Global 500m data. In addition, an estimation study was made using these data for the year 2030. The results showed an increase in the urban area, forest, savannas, wetlands, and ice/snow between 2001 and 2019. On the other hand, a decrease was detected in agricultural areas, water bodies, grasslands, bare lands, and shrubs. Using the cellular automata (CA) method for estimation, first of all, the accuracy of the model was determined by estimating the year 2019. Then, using the same model, an estimation study was carried out for the year 2030. When the estimation results for 2030 are examined, an increase is detected in urban areas; it has been determined that there is a decrease in agricultural areas. This study has demonstrated the successful usability of MODIS data in spatial change estimation. In addition, the results obtained have revealed a comprehensive foresight that can be used in urban planning in order to ensure the sustainable development of the Aegean region in the future.