Monitoring and Analysis of Drought Characteristics Based on Climate Change in Burundi Using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

Abstract

Drought is a global issue with profound implications worldwide on biodiversity, equal safety, poverty eradication, sustainable development, and social-economic stability due to the significant role that water resources play in the growth of the world economy. Burundi is one of the highly vulnerable countries to the effects of climate change-related events because of its low adaptive capacity and high dependence on rainfed agriculture for livelihood. This research aimed to identify drought incidents and their characteristics in terms of duration, severity, and intensity and analysis of their trends in Burundi using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Monthly precipitation and temperature data of seven meteorological stations across Burundi (1981–2020) were obtained from Burundi Geographical Institute (IGEBU). The SPEI index of -2, -6 and -24 month timescales were generated to understand drought characteristics and the Mann–Kendall (MK) test combined with Sen’s slope estimator were utilized to analyze the drought trend based on the calculated SPEI values. The overall analysis of the computed SPEI time series demonstrated that drought is more frequent and severe in Burundi, especially in the northern and eastern parts. The results showed that the most prolonged and severe drought occurred during the 1990–2010 decades, and 1993, 1994, 1995, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2009, and 2016 were extremely dry years. Proactive drought mitigation activities, climate change mitigation and water resources management policy are highly recommended in order to reduce drought risk and its effect on both population and the natural environment.