Monitoring, analysis and post-casting of the Earth’s particle radiation environment during February 14–March 5, 2014

Vladimir Kalegaev,Yulia Shugay,Irina Myagkova,Minh Nguyen,Sergey Bobrovnikov,Wera Barinova,Mikhail Panasyuk,Ilya Nazarkov,Evgenia Beresneva,Sergey Dolenko,Arnaud Prost,Natalia Vlasova,Valery Eremeev

doi:10.1051/swsc/2019029

Abstract

Internet-based system of Space Monitoring Data Center (SMDC) of Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics of Moscow State University (SINP MSU) has been developed to predict and analyze radiation conditions in near-Earth space. This system contains satellite measurement databases and operational models and devoted to collect, store and process space weather monitoring data in the near real-time. SMDC operational services acquire data from ACE, SDO, GOES, Electro-L, Meteor-M satellites and use them for forecasting, now-casting and post-casting of space weather factors. This paper is intended to give overview of operational services of SMDC Internet-based system and demonstrate their possibilities and limitations to analyze space weather phenomena and predict radiation and geomagnetic conditions in the near-Earth space during February 14–March 5, 2014. This prolonged period of high level solar and geomagnetic activity demonstrates various manifestations of the space weather: solar proton events, geomagnetic storms and outer radiation belt (RB) dynamics. Solar sources of interplanetary space disturbances and their influence on geomagnetic and radiation state of the Earth’s magnetosphere were described using output coming from SMDC’ Web-based applications. Validation of SMDC’s operational models was performed based on the quality of description of the physical conditions in near-Earth space during space weather events observed from February 14 to March 5, 2014. The advantages and disadvantages of SMDC operational services are illustrated and discussed based on comparison with data obtained from satellites.

Highlights

Half a century after the beginning of the space age, radiation safety of space missions is becoming more and more critical
They are implemented as space weather Webapplications that provide forecasts of geomagnetic and radiation condition in near-Earth space
Online prediction of Dst index 0.5–1.5 h ahead using artificial neural networks (ANNs) by the parameters of SW and Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) measured by the ACE spacecraft;

Summary

Introduction

Half a century after the beginning of the space age, radiation safety of space missions is becoming more and more critical. Physical (mainly, particle radiation) conditions in space controlled by solar activity (space weather) influence satellite operations and may provoke failures in electronic parts. With the development and increasing complexity of space technology humanity has become much more dependent on the processes that occur in near-Earth space (Albertson et al, 1973; Lanzerotti et al, 1999). Due to enhanced role of space-based technological systems (navigation, communication, etc.) in modern epoch, the ability to quickly assess and predict these processes is of the key importance for successful space activity (Baker et al, 2004). Operational control of the state of near-Earth’s space and. One of the most important factors of space weather is radiation. This phenomenon can have electromagnetic or corpuscular origin but in this paper we will consider only particle radiation

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Discussion

Conclusion