Abstract
Abstract. The purpose of the article is to determine the monetary processes peculiarities during the crisis period of economic development and areas of monetary policy adjustment. The article presents the results of the main monetary indicators of Ukraine for 2005—2020 dynamics regularities assessment. The cyclic nature of their dynamics with a cycle length of 12 months, an increase cyclical swing range and the level of «white noise» of random deviations from the cyclic dynamics line are confirmed. Entropy and entropy production are calculated for the main monetary indicators. The hypothesis that the monetary indicators dynamics uncertainty is determined by the uncertainty of the «white noise» of their random deviations from the lines of cyclic dynamics based on the calculation of the entropies of the dynamics and the dynamics of entropies is put forward and confirmed. Three groups of monetary indicators are formed according to the level of uncertainty in them. According to the research results, the monetary sphere of Ukraine dissipation was stated during the whole period of 2005—2020 with increase of its rates in time intervals, which preceded the crisis phenomena aggravation (07.2007—07.2008, 03.2013—01.2014, 01.2020—06.2020). The sources of uncertainty in the monetary sphere are identified: the amount of cash due to «cash — M0» with 5.4 months lag and the amount of cash due to «cash — M3» with 7.8 months lag. Based on the results of relations between monetary indicators analysis, the directions of monetary policy for overcoming the crisis phenomena in the monetary sphere of Ukraine are proposed. In particular, it is appropriate to change the restrictive monetary policy to an expansionary one, taking into account the lag of action in the relations between entropies / entropies production of the main monetary indicators.The obtained results can be of practical importance in the system of state regulation to stimulate monetary circulation not only in crisis but also in post-crisis periods, ensuring key monetary indicators long-term stability and monetary policy effectiveness improving. Keywords: monetary indicators, monetary aggregates, uncertainty, entropy, entropy production, dissipation, regulation, monetary policy. JEL Classification E50, E51, E52 Formulas: 1; fig.: 3; tabl.: 2; bibl.: 25.
Highlights
As a rule, crisis situations require monetary policy adjustments in the state regulation system, as they are accompanied by instability of monetary processes, high inflation, declining effective demand, local crises in the money and capital markets
Et al [18] stipulates that the long-run, monetary policy should ensure a comprehensive combination of inflation targeting conditions, the adaptive using of tools to achieve intermediate and final targets, while taking into account that the nature of instruments impact is heterogeneous and depends on socio-economic conditions regime of the central bank
Based on the assumption that the laws of money supply, monetary base and other monetary characteristics are determined by the economic processes laws, thehypothesisisformulated: monetary characteristics dynamics uncertainty is determined by the uncertainty of random deviations from the lines of theoretical approximation of their empirical values
Summary
Justification of directions, methods and tools for regulating economic development has become one of the most pressing tasks of modern economics. The definition of economic development targets in relation to the parameters of monetary instruments (even taking into account their stochasticity or behavioral aspects of the relationship) has a number of important comments Over coming such remarks is possible under the condition of expanding the system approach in understanding monetary processes, in particular in the crisis period, and taking into account the irpeculiarities when adjusting monetary policy, which determines the study relevance. The basis of the research methodology is the indeterminacy paradigm of scientific thinking, according to which the instruments of monetary policy are consideredas a part of a heteroarchically organized open system This system development patterns are defined as contingent, and its transformations depend on the amount of chaos in it. The use of other forms of approximation did not make it possible to describe the dynamics lines with a reliability more than 90%
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