Monetary policy shocks and resource misallocations in the Periphery: Evidence from Chinese provincial bond yields

Abstract

We examine the effects of monetary expansions in the center on the excess yields of government bonds in the periphery. We show that the excess yields widen, and the widening is larger, the larger the misallocation of resources in the periphery. Specifically, we examine a panel of over 2500 local Chinese government bonds in 31 provinces, and find that the expansion of Chinese money supply surprisingly raises the excess yields of local bonds over Chinese sovereign bonds, and the gap is larger, the higher the degree of misallocation or other institutional failures in the province. By treating Chinese provinces as small emerging market open economies, we can draw implications for periphery countries in a common currency area, of an expansion in money supply in the center. Our results suggest that the increase in global liquidity post the 2009 and Covid-19 crises can lead to future fragility in the periphery countries.