Monetary policy and the trade weighted dollar

Abstract

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the performance of the trade‐weighted US dollar from 1973 to 2011 as a result of monetary policy.Design/methodology/approachRelevant time series variables – the money supply, the federal funds rate, general financial conditions, national income and interest rate spread are used to investigate the impact of shocks on the US trade‐weighted dollar and to explain the predictive power the variables hold over the weighted dollar. This is accomplished by using the conventional procedures of variance decomposition and Granger causality tests.FindingsThe paper finds that unexpected changes in national financial conditions, the federal funds rate and the velocity of money account for more variation in the performance of the trade‐weighted US dollar than do surprises associated with the interest rate spread (the variable that tracks quantitative easing (QE), quantitative contraction (QC) and neutrality).Practical implicationsThis article is unique in adding to the literary discourse by incorporating international trade and other national conditions as key indicators of the long‐term value of a trade‐weighted currency and its propensity to increase national income. It provides an opportunity for further analysis of the role of QE in currency valuation when the short‐term interest rate becomes an inadequate monetary policy instrument for economic stabilization and determining the value of a currency.Originality/valueThe paper argues that the velocity of money has strong predictive power over the performance of the trade‐weighted dollar and that monetary policy can help to predict changes in the financial and real sectors, but not the value of the trade‐weighted dollar directly or in isolation. This is partly because the monetary policy transmission mechanism and external prices are also relevant to the weighted value of the currency over an extended period of time.