MONETARY CONTROL OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY OF UKRAINE IN MODERN CONDITIONS

Abstract

The paper considers the monetary control in Ukraine beginning from the time of transition to the inflation targeting mode. It is stated that the NBU views the inflation targeting method as a monetary control mode aimed at the establishment and achievement of the target inflation index in the medium-term expectation. It is aimed at financial soundness which leads to the stable and low inflation. As a result, the price stability creates favourable conditions for ensuring economic growth and the employment level rise in the country. Thus, the main factors which assure these conditions are: national currency strengthening, favourable environment for making investments and consumer solutions, low interest rates, security of savings and income of the population against monetary depreciation. The key changes in the monetary control methods are defined that influence the process of inflation targeting in Ukraine, namely: the key method of the monetary strategy is the interest rate; implementation of the dynamic exchange rate; prediction and analysis of the financial risks becomes the basic analytical instruments; widespread application of meetings with the representatives of business, press-releases, media briefings, etc. As a result, the NBU has altered its communication policy coming from the expert audience of the financial market to the mass audience. The basic monetary indices of the national economy of Ukraine in the period from 2014 to 2020 are classified and analyzed. The regression analysis of the monetary policy impact upon the social and economic development from 2008 to 2020 and from 2016 to 2020 was made. A direct dependence of the GDP on the inflation level, cash in circulation, international foreign currency and gold reserve, aggregate volume of credit provided to business entities; linear dependence of the end consumer on bank loans, inflation, cash in circulation and cash in bank deposits as well as the exchange rate of the US dollar for the period from 2008 to 2020 were identified. During 2016-2020 a direct dependence of the real GDP on the gain in the individual consumption volume, M3 money supply, gain in the private consumption and the consumption reduced to the dollar exchange rate and the gain in bank loans extended to non-financial corporations was revealed and described. Keywords: monetary control, economic policy, monetary market, inflation targeting, social and economic development.