Abstract
Monetary conditions and economic activity in the euro area. With a VAR model, we show that the economies of the euro area are strongly dependent on the monetary conditions (short term interest rate, exchange rate). In the long-run, the industrial activity of the area enters in a co-integrating relation with the euro-dollar real exchange rate, the euribor and the money supply M3 in real terms. In the short-run, the influence of monetary policy shocks and exchange rate shocks determines the evolution of industrial production: it reaches its full effect after about one year; however, the influence of monetary policy through the rate of intervention of the BCE is three times higher than that of exchange rate.
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