MON-LB86 The Sensitivity and Specificity of Various Thyroid Nodule Ultrasound Characteristics and the Diagnostic Accuracy of the ATA Guidelines and ACR TI-RADS for Predicting Thyroid Cancer at an Urban Endocrinology Clinic

Abstract

Introduction: Several current guidelines assess sonographic features to guide management of thyroid nodules. The ACR uses an additive point system to assign the level of risk to various sonographic features, whereas the ATA groups sonographic features together to determine the level of risk. The purpose of this study is to compare the performance of the ATA guidelines and ACR TI-RADS at an urban endocrinology clinic in risk stratifying thyroid nodules by their specific sonographic features. Methods: This retrospective, chart-review study includes adult patients who met sonographic criteria for fine needle aspiration (FNA) biopsy based on ATA or ACR TI-RADS at an outpatient endocrinology practice in San Francisco, CA between December 2011 and August 2019. Patients with a prior history of thyroid malignancy (anaplastic and medullary thyroid carcinoma or thyroid lymphoma) were excluded. The reference standard for the diagnosis of malignancy was surgical pathology or FNA cytology Bethesda category V or VI when surgical pathology was unavailable. Analysis of guideline performances and specific sonographic features included: sensitivities (Sn), specificities (Sp), positive predictive values (PPV), negative predictive values (NPV), and area-under-the-curve (AUC) using Fisher’s exact test. Results: Two hundred seventy-five nodules among 195 adults (86.2% were women) were included in the analysis. Twelve nodules were malignant, with an associated malignancy rate of 4.4%. TI-RADS had higher accuracy based on AUC of 0.710 compared to 0.623 using ATA guidelines. TI-RADS also had a higher PPV of 21.4% among nodules with 9 points, versus 5.8% among nodules in the ATA “high suspicion” category. Ultrasound characteristics with the highest Sp, relative PPV and NPV were: microcalcifications (84.5%, 4.3%, 96.0%, respectively), taller-than-wide (81.7%, 7.1%, 96.7%), irregular margins (77.7%, 6.0%, 96.5%); the characteristic with the highest Sn was hypoechogenicity (83.3%), however this had relatively low Sp (25.4%) and PPV (4.5%). Conclusions: TI-RADS performed better with higher overall accuracy and PPV when applied to nodules classified as having the highest malignancy risk. Taller-than-wide shape, irregular margins, and microcalcifications were the characteristics most useful for malignancy risk stratification. Limitations of this study include: interobserver bias, small sample size, referred patient population (which may differ from other institutions), and inability in some cases to confirm malignant FNA cytology with surgical pathology.