Abstract
Hot-spot temperature (HST) is recognized as one of the key factors affecting the life expectancy of a transformer. In this study, a moisture-dependent thermal model (MDTM) for estimating the transformer hot-spot temperature is proposed. In this model, nonlinear thermal resistance is formulated by considering oil and cellulose (paper and pressboard) of the transformer. Especially, the effect of moisture concentration and temperature on the thermal resistance of cellulose is taken into account. The proposed MDTM is verified by using historical data, including moisture-in-oil measurements, temperature measurements, and loading profiles, which were collected from two in-service power transformers, that is, a vegetable oil-filled transformer and a mineral oil-filled transformer. Comparisons between the proposed MDTM and a number of existing thermal models were performed on the basis of adequacy and accuracy metrics.
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