Moisture changes over the past 467 years in the central Hexi Corridor, northwestern China

Abstract

The long-term characteristics of precipitation in arid and semi-arid areas are of great interest because these areas are very sensitive to climate change and human activities. The Hexi Corridor is an arid and semi-arid region in northwestern China that also is an important sector of the Silk Road Economic Belt; despite the region’s dependence on precipitation, annually resolved, long-term moisture records are still lacking for this region. Here, a standard tree-ring width chronology spanning 1484–2015 AD is developed for the Hexi Corridor using Qilian juniper (S. przewalskii Kom.). The chronology is used to reconstruct moisture changes in the region over the past 467 years. Correlation analyses indicate that the tree-ring width index has a significant positive correlation with the June SPEI (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index) on a twelve-month time scale (r=0.73, n=65, p<0.001). We used this information to build a transfer function that explains 52.5% of the variance in the SPEI reconstructed for the period from 1549 CE to 2015 CE. Our study area experienced clear alternations between dry and wet periods. Especially long wet periods include 1600–1650 AD and 1762–1804 AD; long dry periods include 1670–1693 AD, 1917–1970 AD, and 1990–2015 AD. The 1920s was the most severe period of drought in the last 467 years. The results of wavelet analysis and running correlation analysis indicate that the atmospheric circulation system experienced a notable shift around the 1800s, after which point the role of the westerly system grew more pronounced.