Modular stochastic configuration network based prediction model for NOx emissions in municipal solid waste incineration process

Abstract

The accurate prediction of the nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions is extremely important for pollutant control in municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) process. Modular neural network (MNN) provides a support for predicting NOx emissions to overcome the limitations of a single model in nonlinear processes and different climatic conditions. However, the design of sub model for MNN is a challenge. We propose a method based on MNN and adaptive ensemble stochastic configuration network (m-AESCN) in this work. First, fuzzy C-means algorithm decomposes the task into several sub datasets with similar characteristics, and an evaluation function is used to guarantee the optimal decomposition result. Second, for each sub dataset, an adaptive ensemble stochastic configuration network as the sub model of modular neural network. The optimal output for sub model can be obtained by an adaptive weighting method based on variance. Third, in testing phase, a sub model activation method based on cluster centroid is proposed to select a suitable sub model. Besides, the m-AESCN method is validated by the real data of an MSWI plant and shows considerable performance in two different datasets. And the proposed method is compared with several modeling methods, such as stochastic configuration network, support vector regression, random forest and so on. The experimental results under two datasets prove that the maximum improvements in accuracy of m-AESCN are 39.74% and 31.67%, respectively.