Abstract

Politico-Econometric Models and Electoral Predictions for May 2007 in France This paper discusses the question of electoral prediction based on politicoeconometric models. It presents a brief historical sketch of this specific research domain in political economy, and a synthesis of the present model-based predictions for the French 2007 presidential elections. Because the reviewed models predict different and somewhat opposed results, we suggest to use an ex ante arbitrage, based on a simple indicator, the Figaro-Sofres popularity index for the socialist party. The arbitrage between potential winners appears to be very clear. As this paper is written six weeks ante eventum, it can be seen as a kind of natural experiment in itself, useful to test the predictive capacity of our selected indicator.

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