Abstract
Wildfires in limited extent and intensity can be a boon for the forest ecosystem. However, recent episodes of wildfires of 2019 in Australia and Brazil are sad reminders of their heavy ecological and economical costs. Understanding the role of environmental factors in the likelihood of wildfires in a spatial context would be instrumental in mitigating it. In this study, 15 environmental features encompassing meteorological, topographical, ecological, in situ and anthropogenic factors have been considered for preparing the wildfire likelihood map of Sikkim Himalaya. A comparative study on the efficiency of machine learning methods like Generalized Linear Model, Support Vector Machine, Random Forest (RF) and Gradient Boosting Model (GBM) has been performed to identify the best performing algorithm in wildfire prediction. The study indicates that all the machine learning methods are good at predicting wildfires. However, RF has outperformed, followed by GBM in the prediction. Also, environmental features like average temperature, average wind speed, proximity to roadways and tree cover percentage are the most important determinants of wildfires in Sikkim Himalaya. This study can be considered as a decision support tool for preparedness, efficient resource allocation and sensitization of people towards mitigation of wildfires in Sikkim.
Highlights
The forests of Sikkim are part of the Eastern Himalayan biodiversity hotspot
From 2004 to 2009 in Sikkim, the drought-like conditions and index of hotness showed an increasing trend, while the number of rainy days was below average. These trends indicate the impact of climate change in Sikkim (Arrawatia & Tambe, 2012, Sharma & Thapa, 2021). ecosystem (Banerjee et al, 2020, Dong et al, 2017; Kumar, 2012; Pradhan & Badola, 2015)
Based on the prevailing literature, initially, 16 environmental features were considered for the 443 prediction
Summary
The forests of Sikkim are part of the Eastern Himalayan biodiversity hotspot. It is home to a variety of rare and endemic species of flora and fauna (Arrawatia & Tambe, 2011; Paul et al, 2005). The pressure of climate change, deforestation, development, and overgrazing is a growing challenge for the conservation of this fragile. These pressures have a direct impact on the wildfire regime of Sikkim Himalaya. From 2004 to 2009 in Sikkim, the drought-like conditions and index of hotness showed an increasing trend, while the number of rainy days was below average. These trends indicate the impact of climate change in Sikkim (Arrawatia & Tambe, 2012, Sharma & Thapa, 2021). Studies indicate that wildfires are most common in the low elevation Sal forests of Sikkim, followed by temperate sub-alpine and coniferous forests (Arrawatia & Tambe, 2012; Sharma et al, 2014)
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