Modified temperature-based global solar radiation models for estimation in regions with scarce experimental data

Abstract

Reliable data on the availability of solar energy is needed, as solar energy is an essential resource for sustainable development worldwide. However, ground-based radiometric stations are scarce, at least in large areas far from population and in developing countries, so there are difficulties in validating methods for estimating solar radiation. Indirect models mitigate the problem by providing radiation data from other meteorological variables, which can be measured with low-cost equipment and calibrated with data from secondary station networks. However, models’ accuracy decreases if estimations are required far away from the calibration stations. It is hoped that modified models that include the influence of geographical and topographical variables can attenuate this drawback in data-scarce regions. This paper evaluates the accuracy and generality of 14 existing models of monthly global solar radiation based on temperature, which is a routinely measured variable. At first, models are locally calibrated at 105 stations in three large areas in Spain. Then, from the local coefficients of eight stations selected in each area, general equations are derived for the coefficients of each model as function of the ratio between elevation and distance to the sea. The predictions of these modified models, i.e., using coefficients derived from general equations, are compared both for the eight base stations and the remaining ones used for validation. In the comparisons, not only errors averaged in groups of stations are considered, but also local results. Several models perform well in some areas, but a simple homogeneous model is the only one whose indicators are good in all areas and hardly vary when using general coefficients derived from the data measured at all available stations.