Abstract
The paper proposes research approach to analysis of regional socioeconomic system development. The system of estimated parameters of regional socioeconomic system state in the context of municipalities and local government entities is substantiated. It allows determining the optimal variant of regional system development and the level of municipalities’ economic development based on medium term (5 – 10 years) scenarios. The authors have elaborated modified index method for forecasting the regional socio - economic system state based on analysis of a degree of change of socio-economic development parameters, depending on the scenario option. The paper shows the mechanism of the proposed method usage and the results of the individual expert judgments colligation. The prospects of raising the level of socio - economic development of the Republic of Tatarstan municipalities are determined. By prioritizing, basic (needed for implementation of any scenario) and special (requiring urgent actions for each of the scenarios) directions of region development are offered. The directions of development are considered from the standpoint of the four types of territorial differentiation of socio-economic development of the region ("North-South", "East-West", "center-periphery", and «mono - multiethnic regions"). Major trends of probable variations in intraregional disparities in socio-economic development of the Republic of Tatarstan are related to strengthening the role of semi-periphery in the regional development and reduction of differentiation of socio-economic development level between the central and peripheral zones, as well as to the ongoing regional spatial polarization of the Republic. DOI: 10.5901/mjss.2014.v5n18p331
Highlights
Region with its own unique character and level of socio-economic development is more vulnerable, but very adaptable spatial system, especially in conditions of alternative transformations of modern society [1, 7, and 8]
The analysis of methodical and methodological approaches to monitoring and forecasting regional socioeconomic systems of a region and its territorial differentiation [3, 9, and 10] showed that the most acceptable and adequate is the combination of methods of logic simulation, mathematical-statistical [5] and expert estimates
The paper proposes modified mathematical-statistical index method for monitoring and forecasting territorial socioeconomic disparities in the region taking into account the proposed regional characteristics the rate of change of indicators depending on the scenario options
Summary
The paper proposes research approach to analysis of regional socioeconomic system development. The system of estimated parameters of regional socioeconomic system state in the context of municipalities and local government entities is substantiated. It allows determining the optimal variant of regional system development and the level of municipalities’ economic development based on medium term (5 – 10 years) scenarios. The authors have elaborated modified index method for forecasting the regional socio - economic system state based on analysis of a degree of change of socio-economic development parameters, depending on the scenario option. The directions of development are considered from the standpoint of the four types of territorial differentiation of socio-economic development of the region ("North-South", "East-West", "center-periphery", and «mono - multiethnic regions").
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