Abstract
Abstract. This paper explores the variation in hydrological response (often termed as non-stationarity, though this is not necessarily the correct use in the statistical meaning of this term) through time for the Bani catchment in Africa (mostly located in Mali). The objective is to identify deficiencies in the ability of the model to capture the variation in the hydrologic response of the catchment, and modify the model to capture this variation. Due to the large catchment area (approximately 103 000 km2), the unit hydrograph component of the model was modified to permit the model to be used at a daily timescale. Further, an additional driver (population growth) needed to be included in order to adequately capture the transition from a perennial to an ephemeral river.
Highlights
Predicting future water resources requires determining what drivers of hydrological response might change, and how those drivers can be represented in the model
Cross correlation of the rainfall and streamflow data (Fig. 2) shows a strongly seasonal rainfall pattern, with the streamflow-rainfall correlation peak delayed by about 50 days, with slightly enhanced seasonality. This analysis shows the slow response of the catchment to rainfall events, and implies a standard UH model structure comprising of exponentially decaying stores arranged in parallel will not adequately Proc
Two changes to the traditional model structure were needed in order to capture the hydrological response of the Bani catchment:
Summary
Predicting future water resources requires determining what drivers of hydrological response might change, and how those drivers can be represented in the model. Peel and Blöschl, 2011) The impact of these drivers is instability in the parameters of hydrological models (Brigode et al, 2013), leading to the need for a means of validating model parameter values under changed conditions (see Refsgaard et al, 2014 for a suggested framework for achieving this). This paper investigates a catchment which has a significant change in hydrological condition over the available period of record, with a decline in rainfall and the river transitioning from perennial to ephemeral. The IHACRES rainfall-runoff model (Jakeman et al, 1990; Croke and Jakeman, 2004; Andrews et al, 2011) has been used as the starting point for this study, exploring possible changes to the model structure that enable the model to capture the change in hydrological behaviour of the catchment without the need to vary the model parameters
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