Modifications of Long Economic Cycles and Prospects for Global Economic Dynamics in 2021-2050.

Abstract

—The article presents an analysis of the nature and causes of changes observed in the long economic cycles (Kondratieff waves) of global economic development of the first half of the 21st century. The forms of these modifications and the time boundaries of the current long economic cycle are defined. A reduction of the ascending wave of the long economic cycle to 15 years and an expected reduction of the descending wave to 15 years are noted. The reasons for the reduced durations of long economic cycle phases are associated with the proliferation of microelectronic information and communication technology and with the aggravation of global competition by major developing economies. Prospects for global economic dynamics in the next 30 years and possible time boundaries of the next long economic cycle are delineated.