Modern progress in solar paleoastrophysics and long-range solar-activity forecasts

Abstract

Decade-averaged Wolf numbers are reconstructed for the time interval 8005 B.C.–1945 A.D. using radiocarbon data derived from tree rings. Comparisons of other paleoastrophysical reconstructions of solar activity with this temporal series verify its validity and reliability. A prediction of the mean solar activity for the next forty years is made using these reconstructed Wolf numbers. It is likely that the mean solar activity during 2005–2045 will be lower than the activity of recent decades. This conclusion is compared with the long-term predictions proposed by other researchers. The prospects for paleoastrophysical predictions for the long-term variations of solar activity in the future are discussed.