MODERN MODELS OF HYBRID WAR

Abstract

As a result of large-scale processes and trends that have taken place in recent decades in the context of globalization and the information revolution, forms, methods, means and, accordingly, interpretations of national interests and national security are being more or less noticeably metamorphosed. Against this background, in recent years, the concept of "hybrid wars" has rapidly entered the military-political lexicon. It is not only firmly established in the scientific and journalistic literature, as well as in the media, but is also widely used in official documents determining the behavior of states in the international arena. New concepts and methods of conducting hybrid war are developing very rapidly today, which requires a revision of the classic military methods of forecasting and planning both offensive and defensive strategies. Like any other war, gybrid war is an area of unreliability and uncertainty. The inaccuracy of intelligence and the constant intervention of chance lead to the fact that the parties to the conflict actually face a completely different situation than expected, and this can not but affect the planning or at least the perceptions of the situation that formed the basis of strategic plans. The transformation of hybrid warfare into a new type of interstate confrontation raises the issue of the use of modern tools of support and decision-making as a priority. The use of the hybrid war model for this purpose is increasingly going beyond the purely scientific sphere, making it an effective factor in ensuring the national security of countries. The development of effective hybrid warfare strategies and counter-strategies requires the introduction of new technologies based on the modeling and application of AI. The symbiosis of modern scientific knowledge and approaches allows us to study, predict and plan modern hybrid military conflicts as nonlinear objects operating in conditions of high uncertainty. Model, created for this purpose, should be easily integrated into the political and military decision-making process and, given the complexity of this activity, be integrated. This approach will provide an adequate understanding of the complex, ever-changing phenomena of hybrid warfare and hybrid threads and take them into account in the system of national and global security.