Modern economic growth of developing countries: the most important trends, proportions, factors and social consequences

Abstract

The article, based on a number of author's calculations, shows that in the mechanism of modern economic growth, which over the last two hundred years has led to colossal progress in the now advanced economies (AES) and a part of developing countries (DCS), there occurred serious failures in the last 3-4 decades. Despite the information revolution and deepening of the international division of labor, compound annual growth rates (CAGRS) of per capita GDP (PCGDP) and total factor productivity (TFP) in the AES and many DCS have demonstrated a significant tendency to slowdown. Although the AES are still leading the world in the field of fundamental technological innovations, due to the loss of the demographic dividend, decrease in the efficiency of government effectiveness, hypertrophied development of the financial sector, they are noticeably losing their positions in the world economy. Unlike many African, Middle Eastern and Latin American countries, a number of Asian countries (including the PRC, India and NICS), due to the policy of pragmatic reforms and openness, has succeeded in acceleration of CAGRs of their PCGDP and TFP. However, given that in many AES and DCS after the global crisis of 2009 there was no significant mitigation of financial and social problems, and on the eve and during the pandemic they aggravated, it cannot be ruled out that if serious socially oriented reforms are not carried out in the AES and DCS, a deep financial, economic and socio-political crisis may arise in the world in the next year or two.