Models Of Forecasting Of Enterprise’s Behavior In Non-Stationary External Environment

Abstract

In conditions of a high level of market economy instability, an enterprise's behavior is a complex phenomenon that depends on the impact of numerous external and internal factors. This determines the need to develop specific tools for modeling the behavior of the production system to support its competitiveness. The article is devoted to the construction of forecasting models of an enterprise's behavior, namely: 1) a predicting model of the production system's activities that combines the resource capabilities of the enterprise with the state and prospects of branch development; 2) a model of determining the sustainability of the enterprise's development trajectory. The first model contains the production component in the form of the Cobb-Douglas function; financial, labor, innovative and enterprise’s image components, represented by autoregressive functions. The specifically feature of the constructed model is to use capital and labor resources of the enterprise as factors that ensure the transfer and interaction of internal and external fluctuations of the production system. To using factors of the export volume and the gross value added of the branch in the enterprise’s image component allowed to have regard to the development opportunities of the enterprise in the national economy. To determine the stability of the enterprise's development trajectory, the study uses Lyapunov's theory of stability. The general integral factor proposes to use as a factor that reflects the trend of the enterprise’s behavior. Models tested on the data of two industrial enterprises in Morocco.