Models, methods, and progress in world politics: a peace research odyssey

Abstract

Part 1 Traditional policy analysis and prescription: the error term and accident in nuclear war armaments, security and prosperity - an imaginary congressional speech arms control negotiations and the Third World negotiation by proxy - a proposal negotiations, initiatives and arms reduction. Part 2 Beyond policy prescription: conflict research, political action, and epistemology social science and social problems campaign for a US peace academy a Manhattan project for war prevention. Part 3 The research outlook and options: the incomplete theorist - insight without evidence variables, indicators and data - the measurement problem in macropolitical research militarized interstate crises - the BCOW typology and its applications, Russell J.Leng and J.David Singer cumulativeness in the social sciences - some counterprescriptions. Part 4 the research programme and some results: periodicity, inexorability and steersmanship in international war, J.David Singer and Thomas Cusack system structure, decision processes and the incidence of international war alliance aggregation and the onset of war, J.David Singer and Melvin Small capabilities, allocations and success in militarized disputes and wars 1816-1976, Frank W.Wayman, J.David Singer and Gary Goertz. Part 5 Implications and recapitulation: research, policy and the correlates of war the responsibilities of competence in the global village.