Models: Forecasting the Present and Future of Permafrost

Abstract

Models are indispensable tools for projecting future permafrost extent and carbon cycle. In this chapter the current state of the art in modelling is compared with the permafrost thaw and carbon cycle processes discussed in the previous chapters. Land surface models that are applied in Earth System/climate models are still missing crucial processes for predicting the future permafrost carbon feedback, show large discrepancies in hindcasting present permafrost extent and carbon and large variation in future permafrost prediction. However, improvement of permafrost-relevant soil physics is promising. Large-scale modelling of dedicated permafrost and permafrost carbon models has shown interesting results, in particular in modelling thaw of ice-rich permafrost.