Abstract
The article shows the relevance of hierarchical modeling in substantiating the optimal development of the gas industry in modern conditions. The questions of aggregation of calculation schemes of gas supply systems are considered. A set of mathematical models is proposed that allows us to consider it at three levels of the hierarchy, taking into account the improvement, refinement and detail of the information base being developed. Models are considered: 1) optimization of the structure of gas supply systems; 2) optimization of se-zone gas consumption, analysis and synthesis of reliability; 3) optimization of parameters of the main gas-wire taking into account reliability. The created information base on gas supply systems of the Russian Federation includes dynamics of development of demand for natural gas in the domestic and foreign markets, aggregated technical and technological, cost and reliability characteristics of system objects (main gas lines, fields, underground gas storage facilities) and forecasts of gas production. On the basis of mathematical models, studies of the development of multi-level gas supply systems in Russia for the period up to 2030 are performed: the rates and directions of development of the gas transport structure, commissioning of new fields and optimal gas flows through the Russian Federation are substantiated. A systematic assessment of the means of regulating seasonal unevenness of gas consumption and the means of ensuring the reliability of the North-Western district of the Russian Federation was carried out.
Highlights
The unified gas supply system (UGSS) of Russia is a unique system of large size, which is not equaled in the world
The problem of hierarchical modeling of its optimal development began to be studied at the end of the last century [1, 2], and continues to be studied including in the ISEM SB RAS [2,3,4]
The size and complexity of the gas supply systems (GSS), various aspects of their functioning and development make it necessary to consider them at different levels of the hierarchy, taking into account the improvement, refinement and detail of the information base being developed
Summary
The unified gas supply system (UGSS) of Russia is a unique system of large size, which is not equaled in the world. Various tasks of forecasting the world and national development of gas supply systems (GSS) are solved (gas flow models are usually used), each at its own hierarchical level. Research in the field of multi-level modeling of development in the gas industry is an urgent task. The object of research is the gas industry, which includes gas supply systems that supply consumers with hydrocarbon gases – the most important raw material resource for obtaining chemical products and environmentally friendly types of energy. The article considers hierarchical modeling of optimal development of multi-level gas supply systems, including mathematical models of their development, models of reliability analysis and synthesis, and optimization of object parameters with regard to reliability
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