Abstract
The paper examines some foreign and domestic methods of forecasting bankruptcy of enterprises in order to apply them in the largest construction organizations in Russia. The empirical basis of the study is the construction companies that are comparable in size, revenue, and market share. Their annual financial statements preceding the analysis are the information base of calculations. The quality of forecasts has been checked on independent indicators’ calculations of financial analysis, as well as using data from financial markets and share prices under studied companies. The result of the research is the selection of models that gives the most correct forecast of the financial situation of a company in the construction industry. It has been also revealed that models for predicting financial insolvency of enterprises has not been able to assess changes in financial stability in the short term. Therefore, the author compares calculation results with data of financial markets. As a result, it was found that models which demonstrate the greatest predictive ability correlate with the results of independent financial analysis, as well as with data of financial markets regarding the share price dynamics of construction companies. The paper provides recommendations on approaches to choosing models for analyzing the probability of bankruptcy and can be useful for specialists of financial and analytical services to predict the financial insolvency of construction business.
Highlights
A B S TRACT The paper examines some foreign and domestic methods of forecasting bankruptcy of enterprises in order to apply them in the largest construction organizations in Russia
The empirical basis of the study is the construction companies that are comparable in size, revenue, and market share
Which model better predicts the bankruptcy of Russian enterprises? Ekonomicheskii analiz: teoriya i praktika = Economic Analysis: Theory and Practice. 2018;392(41):32–38. (In Russ.)
Summary
Качество прогнозов проверено на основе расчета независимых показателей финансового анализа, а также с использованием данных финансовых рынков и цен акций исследуемых компаний. Что модели прогнозирования финансовой несостоятельности предприятий не могут оценить изменения финансовой устойчивости в краткосрочной перспективе, поэтому было проведено сравнение итогов расчета с данными финансовых рынков. Установлено, что модели, демонстрирующие наибольшую прогностическую способность, коррелируют с результатами независимого финансового анализа, а также с данными финансовых рынков относительно динамики цены акций строительных организаций. Сформулированные рекомендации по подходу к выбору моделей анализа вероятности банкротства могут быть полезны работникам финансовых и аналитических служб для прогнозирования финансовой несостоятельности строительных организаций. Ключевые слова: финансовая несостоятельность; модель прогнозирования; строительство; финансовый анализ; финансовая устойчивость; банкротство; цена акции. В. Модели прогнозирования вероятности банкротства и возможности их применения для строительных компаний.
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