Models for Influenza

Abstract

Influenza causes more morbidity and more mortality than all other respiratory diseases together. There are annual seasonal epidemics that cause about 500,000 deaths worldwide each year. During the twentieth century there were three influenza pandemics. The World Health Organization estimates that there were 40,000,000–50,000,000 deaths worldwide in the 1918 pandemic, 2,000,000 deaths worldwide in the 1957 pandemic, and 1,000,000 deaths worldwide in the 1968 pandemic. There has been concern since 2005 that the H5N1 strain of avian influenza could develop into a strain that can be transmitted readily from human to human and develop into another pandemic, together with a widely held belief that even if this does not occur there is likely to be an influenza pandemic in the near future. More recently, the H1N1 strain of influenza did develop into a pandemic in 2009, but fortunately its case mortality rate was low and this pandemic turned out to be much less serious than had been feared. There were 18,500 confirmed deaths, but the actual number of deaths caused by the H1N1 influenza may have been as many as 200,000. This history has aroused considerable interest in modeling both the spread of influenza and comparison of the results of possible management strategies.