Abstract
In this paper, daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 in different countries are modelled using different mathematical regression models. The curve fitting is used as a prediction tool for modeling both past and upcoming coronavirus waves. According to virus spreading and average annual temperatures, countries under study are classified into three main categories. First category, the first wave of the coronavirus takes about two-year seasons (about 180 days) to complete a viral cycle. Second category, the first wave of the coronavirus takes about one-year season (about 90 days) to complete the first viral cycle with higher virus spreading rate. These countries take stopping periods with low virus spreading rate. Third category, countries that take the highest virus spreading rate and the viral cycle complete without stopping periods. Finally, predictions of different upcoming scenarios are made and compared with actual current smoothed daily confirmed cases in these countries.
Highlights
In this paper, daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 in different countries are modelled using different mathematical regression models
Mathematical curve fitting is a key for getting a mathematical relation between measured values and their dependent input parameters named as regression models [15] like
Fourier fitting model equation with n-terms is presented in Equation (2) [19] and w is the fundamental frequency of sine and cosine terms
Summary
Mathematical curve fitting is a key for getting a mathematical relation between measured values and their dependent input parameters named as regression models [15] like. Choosing the suitable model to represent coronavirus data can be measured by the mean of determination coefficient (R2 ) which takes values from 0 to 1. Higher value of R2 means higher model accuracy [18]. R2 can be calculated from Equation (1) with N data points. I =1 where y avg is the average value of measured data, yi is the measured data value at time ti and ymodel is the corresponding value using the fitting model equation. The used mathematical curve fitting techniques here for modeling daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 and predict upcoming scenarios are Fourier fitting models and sum of sine-waves fitting models
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