Modelo hidrológico de onda cinemática de la cuenca del río Turbio, Guanajuato, México

Abstract

Objective: To apply the HEC-HMS methodology based on kinematic wave theory in the Turbio river basin to increase the accuracy of the model in predicting storm runoff. Methodology: Calculations were made for: 1) rainfall depth to runoff depth, through the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) runoff curve number method, 2) runoff depth to hydrograph, for which the SCS unit hydrograph method and kinematic wave (KW) method were used, 3) flood routing in channels, by the Muskingum and KW methods, and 4) flood routing in dams, with the mass balance method. All steps were executed with the HEC-HMS program. Combinations and comparisons of methods 2 and 3 were made, while 1 and 4 remained constant. Results: The hydrologic model that presented the highest Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index (NSE) was the KW-Muskingum combination, where the runoff depth becomes a hydrograph through the KW and the flood routing in channels is carried out with the Muskingum method, and the lowest value was shown by the KW-KW combination. Study limitations: The models were calibrated for only one event, due to the simultaneous availability of sub-hourly rainfall and flows. This limitation implies that subsequent efforts should focus on validating the kinematic wave model. Originality: The hydrologic model presented here is by events and could be implemented in a flood early warning system. Conclusions: According to the NSE, the three methods were satisfactory; however, the best was the KW-Muskingum combination.