Modelling volumetric growth of emerging urban areas around new transit stations

Abstract

Cities in developing countries are fast transforming from area-based expansion, representing spatial growth, to volumetric expansion, representing a higher skyline. Existing urban growth prediction models predict only spatial or two-dimensional growth. This paper demonstrates a volumetric urban growth model, incorporating the vertical expansion of urban areas. Two separate models were calibrated for spatial and built-up height growth, using historical growth patterns of transit-triggered new town development in India. The models were applied to upcoming transit station areas in India to predict the volumetric urban expansion for the next twenty years.