Modelling Urban Transport Sector: A Methodology Based on OSeMOSYS Model Generator

Abstract

Transport sector could play a relevant role in future energy decarbonisation pathways contributing to energy consumption and pollutant emissions reduction. Planning in the transport sector requires that policy makers be supported with scientifically sound tools, which are able to take into account the peculiar aspects of transport system analyses, especially at urban scale. One of these peculiarities is the spatial dimension of origin-destination travels, that usually cannot be properly modelled by the common bottom-up energy model generators. These generators are used to build models of the energy systems at different geographic scales, including the urban one, and are suitable for forecasting scenario analyses over mid-long term time horizons, e.g. for studying the decarbonisation pathway feasibility. To face the spatial dimension issue, a new concept – the transport corridor – has been introduced into the open source optimization model generator OSeMOSYS, by acting on the structure of its equations. The proposed methodology, in particular, allows the definition of the minimum cost configuration of an urban transport system, with a competition among transport modes and technologies able to fulfil the mobility demand, under different technical and environmental constraints. This approach can comparatively evaluate the impacts of alternative policy options with a higher granularity with respect to more conventional modelling techniques. As such, it could be useful in assessing, under a mid-long term perspective, the effectiveness of specific local measures (like restricted traffic areas) or actions promoting sustainable mobility (as car-pooling/sharing initiatives), supporting the identification of issues and investment priorities.