Abstract
This paper uses annual data from successive UK Labour Force Surveys to model occupational trends over the period 1981 to 1999. Time series models are developed for some nine occupational groups across 17 industrial sectors. Various economic variables, such as output, wages, unemployment, export and import shares are combined with different technology trend and interactive dummy terms to identify the most significant determinants of the changing demand for occupational skills. Data sets are pooled to overcome problems of shortages of degrees of freedom and to assist in the identification of the most statistically robust relationships. This methodology extends the analysis of occupational employment shares beyond the simple extrapolative approaches that have traditionally been applied.
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