Modelling Transportation Policy Impacts on Mobility Benefits and Kyoto-Protocol-Related Emissions

Abstract

The Edmonton Transport Analysis (ETA) Model was used to investigate the potentials of different policy options in reducing transport emissions to meet Kyoto Protocol targets. The model employs travel choice models and vehicle emission and driving cycle models estimated and calibrated using data from Edmonton, Canada to provide indications of a wide range of relevant transportation impacts and benefits for different segments of the travelling public along with direct estimates of aggregate emission quantities relevant to the Kyoto Protocol. The structure of the model is described. Five scenarios representing the scenario in the year 2020 were examined using the model. The findings included a modest increase in the use of public transport and a similar decline in car use in response to improvements in both public transport and infrastructure. Traffic demand management (TDM) and extreme traffic demand management (ETDM) had greater modal shift, but this was still rather modest. TDM and ETDM reduced trip length and duration compared with other scenarios. Only the ETDM scenario reduced aggregate emissions in 2020 to below those in 1990 but this came at a high cost to the travelling public in terms of reduced mobility. The biggest factor affecting carbon dioxide emissions is vehicle technology and not the scenarios modelled. The 1997 version of the ETA model is considered a fit-for-purpose tool for considering household-based travel on weekdays.