Abstract
Despite an emerging consensus that societal energy consumption and related emissions are not only influenced by technical efficiency but also by lifestyles and socio-cultural factors, few attempts have been made to operationalise these insights in models of energy demand. This paper addresses that gap by presenting a scenario exercise using an integrated suite of sectoral and whole systems models to explore potential energy pathways in the UK transport sector. Techno-economic driven scenarios are contrasted with one in which social change is strongly influenced by concerns about energy use, the environment and well-being. The ‘what if’ Lifestyle scenario reveals a future in which distance travelled by car is reduced by 74% by 2050 and final energy demand from transport is halved compared to the reference case. Despite the more rapid uptake of electric vehicles and the larger share of electricity in final energy demand, it shows a future where electricity decarbonisation could be delayed. The paper illustrates the key trade-off between the more aggressive pursuit of purely technological fixes and demand reduction in the transport sector and concludes there are strong arguments for pursuing both demand and supply side solutions in the pursuit of emissions reduction and energy security.
Highlights
Despite a widely agreed consensus that societal energy consumption and related emissions are influenced by technical efficiency and by lifestyles and socio-cultural factors, there is a methodological gap between the perceived importance of these factors for energy demand and quantitative modelling frameworks or even scenario analysis
UK road vehicles are getting ‘plugged-in’ as Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) cars reach nearly 50% market share of total car fleet by 2050 and 26% of road transport energy demand is met by PHEV by 2050
An unconstrained Lifestyle case (LS reference case (REF)) implies that 10% of the UK car parc will be able to connect to the grid by 2020 and 36% by 2030
Summary
Despite a widely agreed consensus that societal energy consumption and related emissions are influenced by technical efficiency and by lifestyles and socio-cultural factors (e.g. household size and composition, expenditure patterns, social norms, habits and the ageing population), there is a methodological gap between the perceived importance of these factors for energy demand and quantitative modelling frameworks or even scenario analysis. Very few attempts have been made to operationalise these insights into models of future energy demand This paper addresses this gap in research and practice by presenting a quantitative scenario exercise using an integrated suite of sectoral and whole systems models to explore potential energy pathways in the UK transport sector. Presenting results in part from the UK Energy Research Centre’s Energy 2050 project (Skea and Ekins, 2009), techno-economic driven scenarios are contrasted with one in which social change is strongly influenced by concerns about energy use, the environment and wellbeing so that transport energy service demand is at a significantly lower level by 2050 than in the ‘business as usual’ assumptions of other pathways. The associated transport energy service demands were modelled using MARKAL Elastic Demand (MED) to assess the implications on fuel demand, emissions and the wider energy sector in the UK. The UK policy focus on vehicle technology reflects other global transport modelling exercises that depend upon between 40% to 90% market penetrations of technologies such as plug-in hybrids and full battery electric vehicles between 2030 and 2050 (IEA, 2008; McKinsey & Company, 2009; WBCSD, 2004; WEC, 2007)
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