Abstract
Tourism has become very important in international commerce and also represents one of the main sources of income for some developing countries in the world. It is the act of people travelling and staying in a place outside their usual environment for leisure, business or other purposes, and this may include sightseeing, camping, retreats, etc Tourism is one of the key economic growth contributors and has contributed towards complete growth and development of Australia by bringing numerous economic value and benefits to her, and also building her brand value, image and identity. This paper seeks to generate a periodic autoregressive PAR model that could be used to make reliable forecast for tourism in Australia. Periodic autoregressive models are for seasonally observed data, particularly quarterly and monthly. Its’ parameters take different values across the seasons. The data used in this work was extracted from the official website of the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), (www.abs.gov.au). It consists of monthly historical data of the number of short term visitors in Australia from January 1998 to December 2017 and was analysed using R- statistical software. The result revealed the order of the PAR model, and also verified that there is periodic variation (periodicity) in the tourism data. It was also verified that there is existence of single unit root and periodic integration which led to the fitting of periodic integrated autoregressive (PIAR(2)) model as the suitable model for the Australian tourism data. Finally, the residual generated from the model was subjected to statistical test and it showed a white noise behavior. Based on these findings, it is concluded that periodic autoregressive time series model can be used to generate reliable forecast for Australian tourism data. Further research on the stochastic nature and seasonality of Australian tourism data was recommended.
Highlights
Tourism is the act of people travelling and staying in a place outside their usual environment for leisure, business or other purposes, and this may include sightseeing, camping and retreats [21]
Tourism may involve people travelling to a place to learn about the history or culture of the destination or even to learn about the people who live there; people from a particular region travelling to a different region to have a taste of an entirely different environment; people travelling in order to get engaged in an event or activity which they could not readily access at home; or people visiting families and friends in another region or going on some form of pilgrimage etc
The objective of this paper is to model tourism in Australia using Periodic Autoregressive model (PAR)
Summary
Tourism is the act of people travelling and staying in a place outside their usual environment for leisure, business or other purposes, and this may include sightseeing, camping and retreats [21]. [21] Tourism helps improve the economy of a place. This can be seen majorly in areas such as transportation (roads, airlines, railways and water transportation), and accommodation (hotels, camping grounds, parks, restaurants, café and bars). Tourism attracts investors to a particular place thereby boosting the foreign investment of that region. Tourism has become very important in international commerce and represents one of the main
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