Modelling to be based on Systems of Differential Kinetic Equations to Processes Group Selection Voters during the Electoral Campaign of Trump-Clinton 2015 - 2016

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is developing methods based on differential kinetic equations, for modelling group behaviour and managing user actions in complex social systems. It is to compare the theoretical results obtained with the observed data, the electoral campaign for distributing the votes of voters during the election race of 2015 - 2016 for the post of US President between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton was chosen.In this work it was presented transition diagram describing the change in moods over time between the preferences of voters in relation to candidates that was constructed to describe the electoral campaign based on kinetic differential equations. Apart from the coefficient of proportionality, that affect to the transitions between voters, in this model there were included the time of change of their views. Processing of available sociological data with using method of almost-periodic functions made it possible to determine the proposed model's numerical value of a number of the series parameters. In particular, it was determined the mean values of times for changing the views of voters.The selection of the coefficients in the kinetic differential equations, based on observations of the social behaviour of the voters, makes it possible to obtain a good correspondence between the theoretical results of the model and the observed data. This suggests that the description of the group behaviour of users in social systems (based on differential kinetic equations) may allow solving the inverse kinetic problem and determining the equations coefficients from the observed data. In this case it can be developed the model for predicting and changing the preferences of group selection participants.