Modelling the Trend of HIV Transmission and Treatment in Kenya

Abstract

HIV infection remains a major contributor to disease burden and a global leading cause of death. Although progress is being made to control HIV infections, Kenya still remains one of the high HIV burden countries in Sub-Sahara Africa. A deterministic model was proposed to describe the trend of HIV infection in Kenya and suggest some control strategies. The basic reproduction number, $$\mathcal {R}_0$$ , is derived and global asymptotic stability analysis of the disease-free equilibrium carried out. We proved that HIV infections will be contained if the reproduction number is kept below one. Routine data from national survey is used to assess the variation of the new HIV infections in Kenya. Based on this data, least squares method was used to estimate the unknown parameters. The HIV incidence shows of an infection at an endemic state implying of ceaseless problem. Furthermore, improvement in immunological status of the HIV patients on ART due to attrition, may lead to decline in HIV infection and be beneficial to the disease control. The findings suggested that treatment with ART greatly aids the decline in HIV infections hence strengthening its intensity will effectively contribute to the disease control.